If you’re having trouble making mortgage payments should you try a Short Sale, or is a Loan Modification better for you?

Part of the answer is know what your home is worth.  Here’s a new tool to let everyone living in Valley Center, CA  know your home value today, and help you decide if a short sale is your best option.

First, let’s get a picture of what happened to home prices in Valley Center during the past nine years.

I created this chart of average housing prices in Valley Center from 2001 to 2009…it will be good for another few months…and I’ll continue updating so keep checking back to see the latest news.Chart showing Average Sales Prices for Valley Center, CA homes from 2001 to 2009

We started the decade pretty well…with home prices increasing until the peak in 2006.

After 2006 the “Housing Bubble” started to pop…and you can see from the chart we really entered the price declines in early 2007.

Right now we’re seeing price declines in Valley Center slowing down…but expect to see prices dropping at least through the end of 2010 before we see any real price gains. 

OK…now that we have the picture in front of us…how does this information help distressed homeowners decide if Short Sales are a better option than a Loan Modification or a Foreclosure?

Owners with true hardship or distress have an open door right now for Short SalesLoan modifications generally only lower payments97% don’t reduce principal owed…and most of the time they are only temporary modifications…most last no more than 5 years.

Ask yourself this question…Do I think my Valley Center home will recover enough value in 5 years to be worth more than the loan balance? 

If the answer is NO…then a loan modification may not make any sense…if you are going to be faced with another mortgage payment crisis in 5 years, why not just get it over with now and start rebuilding your credit?

How do you decide what you need to gain in price to get back to a place where you owe less than the home is worth?

This handy little chart will give you a quick idea of what your home is worth right now…based on what you paid when you bought your Valley Center house. Chart with Percentage Declines from Purchse Price for the average home sold each year in Valley Center for 2001 to 2007

Here is how this works…most of us paid a fair market price when we bought…in any year.  This chart shows you how much the price of the average home in Valley Center, CA has changed from purchase until the end of December 2009. 

All you need to do is look up the year you bought…then look over and see the percentage lost or gained from the original purchase price.

For example, if you paid $625,000 in 2006 for your home…you reduce that by 42%…so your present value is close to $362,500.

This really helps you decide whether a short sale is your best choice.

Look at the new value…many folks used loans greater than 80% of the purchase price…so for the above example that person could owe $500,000.  The difference between today’s sale value and the loan would be about $163,000.

Ask yourself…do I think my house will gain back all the lost value in 5 years? 

That example would mean you need 7% annual appreciation…that’s possible…but more likely you will get 3%…so you would still be $80,000 underwater at the end of five years…for this example…possibly a lot more if you have a larger mortgage or borrowed a larger percentage of the purchase price.

Does a Short Sale make more sense than a Loan Modification?

Every homeowner needs to decide for themselves.  No one knows if prices will go up or continue down.  Home ownership has a lot of benefits…some folks will be better off to stay put and try to hang on…others will do better to sell now…use two or three years to rebuild their credit…and then buy again.

The only thing I know for sure is a foreclosure should never be your first choice.  Please see the other articles here about how foreclosures can have huge negative consequences…and leave you will all the debt still in place…forcing you into bankruptcy.

If you have any questions please call Bob Davis at 760.525.0123

Phone Calls are always Free…Knowledge is Priceless!

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Bank CEO’s testified before the U.S. Congress last week and claimed they never saw the housing bubble coming, and could not predict the following wave of foreclosures

It may seem hard to believe, but the best and brightest in our banking institutions sat before the U.S. Congress and stated they had no idea their lending and investing practices would land the country in the middle of the largest economic downturn since the great depression.

Take a look at this video from Steven Colbert…make sure you Watch the WHOLE THING!!  You will be amazed at the things you hear straight from the CEO’s of these major banks! (if you don’t see the video box just click on the title of this article and it will pop up!) 

Colbert is making a great point…these banks that are taking all the Federal TARP money and tax relief they can get…but they don’t want homeowners to get any relief from high mortgage payments!  They want you to continue paying for mortgages on homes worth half of what most folks paid for them four years ago…and that is a Double Standard if I ever saw one!

What does this mean for Valley Center homeowners?

There are two possibilities from the Bank CEO testimony:

  1. These CEO’s are telling the truth…and the collective wisdom of the largest financial institutions never saw this wave for foreclosures and short sales before they happened.
  2. These CEO’s are not telling the truth…they knew this was coming, but chose to make money instead of doing the right things

I guess I’m getting cynical in my age…but I have to go with answer #2.

This leads to the obvious conclusion the Banks are motivated by profit over honest business practices…so here are two more things to consider if you are having trouble with mortgage payments or are considering short sale as an alternative to foreclosure:

  1. Can you trust these banks when they offer you a “Trial” loan modification? (remember only 7% of the trial mods have been made permanent at this time)
  2. If you’re in a hardship situation and are facing foreclosure why wouldn’t you use a short sale to get the same kind of debt relief your lender is already taking from the government?

These banks created the “housing bubble” with low standards for lending…and now they want all the borrowers to bail them out?  I don’t think so

Please call me..Bob Davis…760-525-0123…when you have any questions about short sales or foreclosures…I’m certified by the National Association of Realtors as a Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource Specialist…I have LOTS of information that can help you determine the BEST choices for you!

Phone calls are Free…Knowledge is Priceless

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Foreclosure Statistics for Valley Center CA., 17 January 2010

January 17, 2010
Foreclosure chart for Valley Center, CA. showing September 2009 to January 2010 numbers for Notices of Default, Notices of Trustee Sale, and Foreclosures

Foreclosure activity in Valley Center, CA. decreased at the end of 2009, but a lender moratorium on new foreclosures over the holidays is probably most of the reason for the drop. This chart shows foreclosure activity for Valley Center from mid-September 2009 to mid-January 2010.  These numbers came from Foreclosure Radar…and they’re as accurate as [...]

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Is FannieMae Deed-for-Lease program good for Valley Center Homeowners?

January 17, 2010
Lenders are ripping off Valley Center Homeowners with foreclosures instead of short sales

The Fannie Mae Deed-for-Lease program makes foreclosure easy for the banks, but gives no help to borrowers facing foreclosure in Valley Center, CA. If you’re deciding between a foreclosure or a short sale…and you have a Fannie Mae backed loan…you may be ready to hand the keys over to the bank and call it quits…but before you do that read [...]

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Valley Center Home Sales Stats for December 2009

January 13, 2010
Valley Center, CA Sales Statistics for December 2009, including Short Sales and Foreclosures

During December 2009, Fourteen of the Twenty-One homes sold in the Valley Center, CA. 92082 zip code area, were either Foreclosures or Short Sales . 70-percent of the Valley Center housing market in December was “Distressed” sales.  this trend is decreasing average sale prices and values, and leading to more short sales as owners are facing ARM and [...]

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Avoid Becoming a 2010 Foreclosure Statistic in Valley Center, CA

January 4, 2010
Chart of Pending Foreclosure Inventory from FirstAm/CoreLogic

First American/Core Logic just released a report showing “Shadow Inventory” of foreclosure homes in the U.S. increased 54% in 2009, threatening another decrease in home prices for hard-hit areas like Valley Center, CA. and increasing short sales. This potential “Foreclosure Tsunami” threatens to start another round of price reductions and force even more homeowners into [...]

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Pre-Foreclosures in Valley Center, CA. Mean More Short Sales in 2010

January 3, 2010
Valley Center, 3 Jan 2010, MLS Listings, Short Sales and Other Sales

Short Sales are expected to become the majority of homes sold next year, with a downward pressure on home prices in Valley Center, CA. during 2010. Job losses and record numbers of homeowners missing payments are increasing the number of foreclosed or pre-foreclosure homes.  The pending withdrawal of the Federal Housing Tax Rebate program will make it harder [...]

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2010 Home Prices in Valley Center, Possible 14% price decrease

January 1, 2010
Median Housing Prices in San Diego County 1979 to 2009

30 years of median home price data for the San Diego area show homes still may be over-priced, and ready for further price declines in 2010. Homeowners in Valley Center, CA. are reeling from the past three years of price declines, but a long term look at prices in San Diego County gives the clear impression that 2010 [...]

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Valley Center 2009 Home Sales, Shadow Inventory Growing

December 31, 2009
Valley Center 2009 Foreclosures and Shadow Inventory Chart

2009 Home Sales and Foreclosure statistics in Valley Center, CA. show an increasing number of “Shadow Inventory Homes” that banks are holding off the market, and increasing numbers of Short Sales. Foreclosed homes aren’t coming back on the resale market as fast as banks are taking them, making me wonder just how long can lenders hold [...]

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VCShortSaleHelp Now Has SFR Professional Certification

December 29, 2009
Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource Certification

Valley Center Short Sale Help now has the Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource Certification (SFR) from the National Association of Realtors. SFR is the only Short Sale and Foreclosure certification sponsored by the NAR, and it gives sellers and buyers assurance they are working with a trained professional Realtor. Certifications are important, and equally important [...]

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